Forecast in planning, a case of study in a distribution company of the pharmaceutical sector
Johanna Rodríguez-León- Mateo Pachón-Rincón
Published 2021-07-14
Keywords
- forecasting,
- time series,
- forecast accuracy,
- demand analysis,
- ABC methodology
How to Cite
Abstract
A fundamental tool for operational, tactical, and strategic planning of any company is the sales forecast. The achievement of the goals set by the different areas of an organization will largely depend on the good ability of the forecast to interpret the history of the sales data of the products and its degree of precision. The company under study has now an independent forecasting process for each country in which it has an operation, but it does not carry out an overall sales analysis and in addition, there is enough information for the development of an improvement study framed into the consolidated demand management. This case of study starts from the historical sales data of the products of a distribution and marketing company of medicines and cosmetic products. After applying an initial classification of the SKUs, the information is consolidated by product lines, each of which will be treated as a time series to execute the process of pattern analysis, selection, and fitted of the forecast methodologies and subsequent evaluation of their accuracy. The most accurate methodology will be selected to forecasting each of the product lines for the year 2020 and also will be graphically compared with the current forecast of the company using the real sales of the first quarter of the year. The present study is highly relevant to the company due to the improvement of the visibility in terms of demand and provides a basis for decision-making in the improvement of processes at the corporate level.
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References
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