Revista UIS Ingenierías

Vol. 23 No. 1 (2024): Revista UIS Ingenierías
Articles

Quantitative Risk Analysis for Construction Projects Considering Risks Correlations and Fuzzy Logic

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  • Alvaro Julio Cuadros,
  • Nicolle Alexandra Cruces Arévalo ,
  • Claudia Ortiz
Alvaro Julio Cuadros
Universidad del Valle
Nicolle Alexandra Cruces Arévalo
Universidad del Valle
Claudia Ortiz
Universidad del Valle
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18273/revuin.v23n1-2024011

Published 2024-04-29

Keywords

  • Construction Projects,
  • Critical risks,
  • Failure Modes and Effects Analysis,
  • Fuzzy logic,
  • Monte Carlo Simulation,
  • Project scheduling,
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis,
  • Risk Correlations,
  • Risk management,
  • Uncertainty
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

Cuadros, A. J., Cruces Arévalo , N. A. ., & Ortiz , C. . (2024). Quantitative Risk Analysis for Construction Projects Considering Risks Correlations and Fuzzy Logic. Revista UIS Ingenierías, 23(1), 127–140. https://doi.org/10.18273/revuin.v23n1-2024011

Copyright (c) 2024 Revista UIS Ingenierías

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Construction projects have a high level of uncertainty because of several risk factors. Risks may affect projects in many ways resulting in time delays or cost overruns. Thus, the evaluation of uncertainty is required to get a reliable schedule. This research proposes a method for project scheduling considering risks. Expert judgment is used to identify and analyze risks. Potential risks are identified through Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA). Risks impact is evaluated through fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The simulation considered the relationship between risks, and risks and activities.

 

 

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