Revista UIS Ingenierías

Vol. 23 Núm. 1 (2024): Revista UIS Ingenierías
Artículos

Análisis cuantitativo de riesgos para proyectos de construcción considerando correlaciones entre riesgos y lógica difusa

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  • Alvaro Julio Cuadros,
  • Nicolle Alexandra Cruces Arévalo ,
  • Claudia Ortiz
Alvaro Julio Cuadros
Universidad del Valle
Nicolle Alexandra Cruces Arévalo
Universidad del Valle
Claudia Ortiz
Universidad del Valle
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18273/revuin.v23n1-2024011

Publicado 2024-04-29

Palabras clave

  • Proyectos de construcción,
  • Riesgos críticos,
  • Análisis modal de fallos y efectos,
  • Lógica difusa,
  • Simulación Monte Carlo,
  • Programación de proyectos,
  • Análisis Cuantitativo de Riesgos,
  • Correlaciones de riesgo,
  • Gestión de riesgos,
  • Incertidumbre
    • ...Más
    Menos

Cómo citar

Cuadros, A. J., Cruces Arévalo , N. A. ., & Ortiz , C. . (2024). Análisis cuantitativo de riesgos para proyectos de construcción considerando correlaciones entre riesgos y lógica difusa. Revista UIS Ingenierías, 23(1), 127–140. https://doi.org/10.18273/revuin.v23n1-2024011

Derechos de autor 2024 Revista UIS Ingenierías

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Resumen

Los proyectos de construcción sufren un alto nivel de incertidumbre debido a múltiples factores de riesgo. Los riesgos incertidumbre para tener programaciones confiables. Esta investigación propone un método para la programación de proyectos considerando los riesgos. Se aprovecha el juicio de expertos para identificar y analizar los riesgos. Los riesgos potenciales son identificados a través del Análisis modal de fallos y errores (FMEA). El impacto de los riesgos se evalúa a través de lógica difusa y simulación Monte Carlo (MCS). La simulación considera la relación entre riesgos y entre riesgos y actividades. La aplicación del método en un proyecto de construcción permitió obtener una programación más precisa.

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